The Black Swan: Second Edition : The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a New Section: “On Robustness and Fragility”
by Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Editor: Random House USA Inc
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The Black Swan is an autonomous book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb landmark of the Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, the probability of human error, risk and decision making in a world we do not understandOther books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of ProcrustsA black swan is a highly improbable event with three main characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries within it a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random and more predictable, than it was.Google’s amazing success was a black swan; so was 9/11For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our personal lives.Why didn’t we recognize the black swan phenomenon until they occurredPart of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are programmed to learn details when they should be focused on generalities.We focus on the things we already know and over and over again fail to take into consideration what we do not knowWe are, therefore, unable to truly estimate the possibilities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, tell, and classify them, and not to open enough to reward those who can imagine the “impossible”.For years, Taleb has studied how we deceive ourselves into thinking we know more than we do now.We limit our thinking of relevance and of little importance, while major events continue to surprise us and shape our worldIn this book of revelation, Taleb explains everything we know about what we do not know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay “Robustness and Fragility”, which offers tools for navigating and exploiting a Black Swan worldElegant, surprising, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world.Taleb is very entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, unusual and stories to tellHe has a pol
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